No. 2 Georgia at No. 4 Alabama is the main event on a Week 5 college football schedule that features four games between ranked teams.
The Bulldogs and Crimson Tide meet in the first top-five showdown of the season, and Georgia is a two-point favorite heading into the blockbuster matchup. This is the first head-to-head coaching matchup between Kirby Smart and Kalen DeBoer. The quarterback matchup between Carson Beck and Jalen Milroe will have Heisman Trophy implications. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET.
The other three games will lead into that matchup. No. 20 Oklahoma State travels to No. 23 Kansas State at 12 p.m. ET in a battle of Big 12 teams coming off disappointing losses in Week 4.
No. 15 Louisville takes on No. 16 Notre Dame at 3:30 p.m. on Peacock. Will the Cardinals knock off the Irish for the second straight season? No. 19 Illinois takes on No. 9 Penn State at 7:30 p.m. ET in a matchup of unbeaten Big Ten teams with playoff aspirations.
There are 19 games involving ranked FBS teams in Week 5. A look at our track record this season:
- Straight up: 54-13 (13-5 in Week 4)
- Against the spread: 34-33 (7-11 in Week 4)
Here are our picks against the spread for Week 4.
MORE: College Football Playoff projections after Week 4
College football Week 5 picks against the spread
Friday, Sept. 27
- Virginia Tech at No. 7 Miami, Fla. (-17) (7:30 p.m., ESPN)
The last three meetings have been decided by an average of 6.6 points per game, but this is a different Miami team. The Hurricanes have outscored opponents 107-10 in the second half of games this season. Virginia Tech has two one-score losses to Vanderbilt and Rutgers. This could be right on the spread, but Cam Ward – who averages 359.8 passing yards per game – will take advantage of the Friday night spotlight.
Pick: Miami wins 38-17 and COVERS the spread.
Saturday, Sept. 28
- Kentucky at No. 6 Ole Miss (-17.5) (12 p.m., ABC)
Will Kentucky be the team to slow down the Ole Miss offense? The Rebels have won the last two meetings by scores of 42-41 in 2020 and 20-19 in 2022. Jaxson Dart leads the nation in passing yards (389 per game) and passer rating (219.4). The Rebels are 4-0 ATS this season, but the Wildcats are 7-7 ATS as a road underdog under Mark Stoops since 2000. This is Kentucky's first road game this season.
Pick: Ole Miss wins 35-16 and COVERS the spread.
- No. 22 BYU at Baylor (-3) (12 p.m., FS1)
This line jumps out considering the records, and the home team has won the four previous meetings between the schools. Why are the Bears favored? Baylor is 13-4 S/U and 10-7 ATS as a home favorite under Dave Aranda. Sawyer Robertson is the new starter for the Bears, but Jake Retzlaff has settled in nicely with a tough defense behind him. The Cougars are 3-7 S/U and 4-6 ATS as a road underdog.
Pick: BYU wins 24-19 in an UPSET.
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- Minnesota at No. 12 Michigan (-10) (12 p.m., Fox)
Michigan has won the last three meetings for the Little Brown Jug by an average of 30 points per game, but this Wolverines' team has been limited in the passing game. Minnesota has allowed just 12.5 points per game, but they allowed 272 rushing yards on six yards per carry to Iowa in Week 4 and lost by 17. Michigan's offense looks a lot like Iowa, and the defense is better.
Pick: Michigan wins 21-10 and COVERS the spread.
- No. 20 Oklahoma State at No. 23 Kansas State (-5.5) (12 p.m., ESPN)
Who wins this traditional Big 12 battle between one-loss teams? The Cowboys rank 14th in the Big 12 in rush offense (96.3 ypg.). The Wildcats rank third at 240.3 yards per game. Unless that changes, the Cowboys will need Alan Bowman on point in a tough road environment. The Cowboys have won four of the last five in the series, but the lone loss was a 48-0 shutout in Manhattan in 2022.
Pick: Kansas State wins 35-28 and COVERS the spread.
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- No. 15 Louisville at No. 16 Notre Dame (-5) (3:30 p.m., Peacock)
The Cardinals beat the Irish 33-20 last season, and the difference was limiting the Irish's rushing attack to 44 yards and stopping the Irish on third down. Riley Leonard presents a different challenge, but those third downs will be the difference-maker. Louisville quarterback Tyler Shough has eight TDs, zero interceptions and has taken just one sack. Can the Irish put together a consistent performance on offense? The Cardinals average 502.3 yards per game. The Irish are 3-1 S/U against ranked opponents at home under Marcus Freeman.
Pick: Notre Dame wins 27-24 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
- Arkansas at No. 24 Texas A&M (-4.5) (3:30 p.m., ESPN)
The Aggies are 11-1 S/U against the Razorbacks since joining the SEC in 2011. Texas A&M has a ground attack with three options who average more than 5.0 yards per carry, led by new quarterback Marcel Reed. Arkansas forced five turnovers in a victory against Auburn in Week 4. Can Taylen Green make enough plays in the passing game for Arkansas to make a run in the fourth quarter? Arkansas is 2-0 ATS as an underdog this season.
Pick: Texas A&M wins 22-19 and FAILS TO COVER the spread.
- Wisconsin at No. 13 USC (-14) (3:30 p.m., CBS)
The Badgers had a bye week to prepare for the Trojans with new quarterback Braedyn Locke, who has experience but will need to improve on a 50% career completion percentage. Wisconsin will try to win the time-of-possession battle, and they will need a few big plays in the running game. USC is 8-7 ATS under Lincoln Riley, and they are coming off an emotional loss. The Badgers will hang around, and that extra week will make a difference.
Pick: USC wins 28-17 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
BENDER: Michigan-USC thriller shows proof of concept of Big Ten expansion
- No. 21 Oklahoma (-3) at Auburn (3:40 p.m., ABC)
Both teams have quarterback drama. Oklahoma could go with freshman Michael Hawkins over Jackson Arnold. Auburn could go back to Payton Thorne over freshman Hank Brown. If two freshmen start in this game, then turnovers will happen. Auburn has a -10 turnover ratio in four games, and the Sooners' defense isn't the issue. Hawkins can make enough plays to off-set the mistakes and pull out a victory in the Sooners' first SEC road game.
Pick: Oklahoma wins 24-14 and COVERS the spread.
- Mississippi State at No. 1 Texas (-38.5) (4:15 p.m., SEC Network)
The Longhorns have outscored four opponents 190-22, and they are 4-0 ATS against some large numbers. The SEC opener comes against Mississippi State, which is struggling under new coach Jeff Lebby. Arch Manning might get his second start here in place of Quinn Ewers (abdominal strain), and whoever starts will get what they want against a pass defense that has allowed opposing QBs to go 49 of 56 (87.5%) for an average of 281 yards and six TDs the last two weeks. Will the Longhorns' defense hold against the back-door cover?
Pick: Texas wins 52-14 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
MORE: Texas holds No. 1 spot in SN's Top 25
- Stanford at No. 17 Clemson (-21.5) (7 p.m., ESPN)
Stanford is averaging 31.3 points per game and limiting opponents to 2.2 yards per carry heading into a cross-country ACC road matchup at Clemson. The Tigers have been on a roll since losing the opener against Georgia. Cade Klubnik averages 293.5 yards per game with eight TDs and no interceptions, and the Tigers will be able to generate more of a running game than TCU or Syracuse. It's a large spread against an improved team, but the Tigers continue their hot streak at home.
Pick: Clemson wins 42-17 and COVERS the spread.
- No. 3 Ohio State (-24.5) at Michigan State (7 p.m., Peacock)
The Buckeyes are 1-2 ATS entering their Big Ten road opener, and the Spartans have improved under first-year coach Jonathan Smith. How do they slow down the Ohio State running game? Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson combine to average 9.3 yards per carry. The Spartans have a -5 turnover ratio, and Aidan Chiles has thrown seven interceptions. That is a dangerous combination facing a defense that allows 1.8 yards per rushing attempt. Look for Ohio State to stay locked in for the Big Ten opener.
Pick: Ohio State wins 38-10 and COVERS the spread.
- No. 18 Iowa State (-12.5) at Houston (7 p.m., FS1)
Houston is coming off a 34-0 loss at Cincinnati, and now they are facing the best defense in the Big 12. The Cyclones are allowing 260 yards and 9.7 points per game. This is the first meeting between the schools, and that is a lot of points on the road to cover. Iowa State is 2-2 as an away favorite since last season. Houston will keep it close for a half, but Rocco Becht will not make the game-changing mistake on the road.
Pick: Iowa State wins 28-14 and COVERS the spread.
- No. 19 Illinois at No. 9 Penn State (-17.5) (7:30 p.m., NBC)
It's homecoming for Penn State, and the last time these teams met in Happy Valley the Illini won 20-18 in nine overtimes. Illinois has improved around quarterback Luke Altmyer – who leads the Big Ten with 10 TDs and no interceptions. Drew Allar has the highest passer rating among Big Ten quarterbacks at 218.3. Which team can prevent those chunk plays in the passing game? Illinois is living off a +7 turnover margin. Can they slow down Penn State's rushing attack – which averages 255 yards per game? That is the key. Be wary of a late cover from the Nittany Lions if you take the Illini.
Pick: Penn State wins 31-14 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
- No. 2 Georgia (-2) at No. 4 Alabama (7:30 p.m., ABC)
A fantastic matchup. Why would Georgia be favored here? That might be influenced by Jalen Milroe and the fact the Crimson Tide have won eight of the last nine meetings. This is DeBoer's chance to make a statement in a top-five showdown. Both teams had a bye week, and Georgia quarterback Carson Beck will not make the fatal mistake on the road. The Bulldogs' defense – which still has not allowed a TD – will force that one turnover that makes the difference in the second half. Georgia is favored because they are the slightly better team, and Smart gets a memorable victory at Bryant-Denny Stadium in a game that absolutely could come down to a last-second field goal.
Pick: Georgia wins 24-21 and COVERS the spread.
- South Alabama at No. 14 LSU (-20.5) (7:45 p.m., ESPN)
The Jaguars will have LSU's attention. South Alabama has averaged 67.5 points per game the last two weeks – and that included a 48-14 victory against Appalachian State. Running back Fluff Bothwell averages 9.7 yards per carry, and the Tigers lost linebacker Harold Perkins. All that will make South Alabama a popular pick to cover, but Garrett Nussmeier is the difference-maker in this game. He is hitting 70.6% of his passes and leads the SEC with 13 TDs. The Tigers still have not put together a complete football game. They do that here heading into the bye week.
Pick: LSU wins 48-20 and COVERS the spread.
- Washington State at No. 25 Boise State (-7) (10 p.m., FS1)
Washington State has been an enjoyable chaos team to this point. The Cougars average 46.2 points per game, and John Mateer ranks third in the FBS in total offense (381.8 ypg.). Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty leads the FBS with 195.3 rushing yards per game. That alone is the recipe for a wild late-night shootout, and this line could dip under a touchdown before kickoff. The Cougars do lead the all time series 5-1. These teams have not met since 2017, but they will in the future in the new-look Pac-12.
Pick: Boise State wins 38-35 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
- Arizona at No. 10 Utah (-12) (10:15 p.m., ESPN)
Arizona had a bye week to prepare for Utah, which continues to roll with backup quarterback Isaac Wilson. Cam Rising's status will impact the line, but we have learned to make the adjustment at this point. Arizona's offense revolves around the connection between Noah Fifita and Tetairoa McMillan – who has 453 receiving yards and 19.7 yards per catch. The problem is the Wildcats have allowed 200-plus rushing yards in two of three games. Utah will feed off that at home.
Pick: Utah wins 31-17 and COVERS the spread.
- No. 8 Oregon (-24) at UCLA (11 p.m., Fox)
Oregon had a bye week to prepare for UCLA, which is coming off a 34-17 road loss at LSU. The Bruins have played a tough early-season schedule, but there have been signs of improvement under Deshaun Foster. UCLA's pass defense has allowed 300-plus yards in its last two games, and they do not create enough turnovers or maintain enough of a running game to keep up with the Ducks. If Oregon's running game is clicking behind Dillon Gabriel, this could become a second-half blowout in a hurry. Still, Oregon has never beat UCLA at the Rose Bowl by more than 18 points.
Pick: Oregon wins 42-21 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.